Fourteen months after the 2025 federal election, the Australian political landscape is unrecognisable. The Track a Poll rolling average for 27 June 2026 shows One Nation leading on primary votes at 29.6%, ahead of Labor on 27.4%, with the Coalition a distant third on 18.9%. The Greens sit at 12.8% and Others at 11.3%.
The trend over the past month has accelerated. Since 27 May, the Coalition has shed a further 2.4 percentage points (from 21.3% to 18.9%), with One Nation picking up 1.7 points (from 27.9% to 29.6%) and Others gaining 1.4 points. Labor has also drifted down 1.4 points, while the Greens are up 0.7.
The seat model, using SA 2026 preference calibrations, projects 59 seats changing hands from 2025 – producing a House of Representatives that would have been almost impossible to imagine at the last election.
The headline numbers
| Party | 2025 result | Modelled result | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | 94 | 70 | −24 |
| Coalition | 43 | 9 | −34 |
| One Nation | 0 | 55 | +55 |
| Greens | 1 | 5 | +4 |
| Other, Left-leaning | 9 | 8 | −1 |
| Other, Right-leaning | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Labor would fall short of a majority with 70 seats – 24 fewer than 2025 – but would be the most likely party to form government with the support of the Greens (5 seats) and Other, Left-leaning independents (8 seats), giving a combined left-of-centre bloc of 83. The Coalition would be reduced to just 9 seats, losing 34. All 34 of those losses flow to One Nation, which also picks up 20 seats from Labor and 1 from an Other, Left-leaning independent (Nicolette Boele in Bradfield).
The Coalition’s collapse is deepest in the bush
Of the 34 Coalition seats projected to fall to One Nation, the geographic pattern is stark:
- 17 rural seats – including all of the Coalition’s rural NSW seats (Farrer, Lyne, Page, Parkes, Riverina), the full sweep of rural Queensland (Dawson, Fairfax, Fisher, Flynn, Maranoa, Wide Bay, Wright), and three Victorian rural seats (Casey, Monash, Wannon). Also Grey in SA and Forrest in WA.
- 8 provincial seats – Capricornia, Groom, Hinkler, Longman, McPherson, Moncrieff (all QLD), Cowper (NSW), and La Trobe (VIC).
- 7 outer-metropolitan seats – Berowra, Hume, Lindsay, Mitchell (NSW), Bowman, Fadden (QLD), and Canning (WA).
- 2 inner-metropolitan seats – Cook (NSW) and Goldstein (VIC).
The nine Coalition seats that survive are almost entirely in Victoria (four seats) and Western Australia (two), with one each in NSW, QLD, and SA. Strikingly, the Coalition is wiped out entirely from metropolitan areas – not a single inner- or outer-metropolitan seat remains. Of the nine survivors, eight are rural and one provincial (Herbert, QLD). The Coalition is also projected to hold zero seats in New South Wales outside Sydney.
Labor losses spread across the suburbs
Labor loses 24 seats in total – 20 to One Nation and 4 to the Greens. The One Nation gains from Labor are concentrated in outer-metropolitan and provincial seats:
- 9 outer-metropolitan seats – Hughes (NSW), Aston, Deakin, Menzies (VIC), Dickson, Forde, Petrie (QLD), Bullwinkel, Moore (WA).
- 5 provincial seats – Paterson (NSW), Hawke, Bendigo (VIC), Blair (QLD), and Braddon (TAS).
- 4 rural seats – Gilmore, Hunter (NSW), Leichhardt (QLD), McEwen (VIC).
- 2 inner-metropolitan seats – Banks (NSW) and Solomon (NT).
The four Greens gains – Melbourne and Wills (VIC), Griffith (QLD), and Richmond (NSW) – are all among the party’s strongest areas, with two of the four (Melbourne and Griffith) previously held by the Greens before being lost at the 2025 election. Three are inner-city electorates, while Richmond covers the Northern Rivers region.
Queensland is One Nation country
The state-level breakdown is perhaps most dramatic in Queensland, where One Nation would win 20 of the state’s 30 seats. That leaves just six for Labor (down from 15 in 2025), two for the Greens, one for the Coalition (Herbert), and one Other, Right-leaning seat (Kennedy).
In New South Wales, One Nation is projected to win 17 seats – all of them previously held by the Coalition or Labor. Victoria sees 11 One Nation gains, and Western Australia four.
The final two: how 2CP match-ups have transformed
Perhaps the clearest sign of how dramatically the landscape has shifted is the composition of two-candidate preferred contests across the 150 seats. At the 2025 election, 114 seats came down to a Coalition vs Labor final pair. Under the current modelling, that number collapses to just 1. In its place, 110 seats now resolve as Labor vs One Nation, 15 as Coalition vs One Nation, and 12 as One Nation vs Other, Left-leaning. The Greens vs Labor count drops slightly from 8 to 6.
In short, One Nation has replaced the Coalition as the right-of-centre standard-bearer in the vast majority of seats. The two-party contest that defined Australian federal elections for a century has, on these numbers, effectively ceased to exist.
Who lives in the seats that are changing hands?
The demographic profile of seats changing hands reveals a clear pattern. Among the 15 electorates with the highest share of residents who identify as Christian, 11 are projected to change hands – all 11 to One Nation. Similarly, 10 of the top 15 seats for residents with both parents born in Australia are projected to flip, all 10 to One Nation. Among the top 15 seats for outright home ownership, 10 change hands – again, all to One Nation. And 9 of the 15 oldest electorates (by share of residents aged 65 and over) are projected to change, with 8 going to One Nation.
The mirror image is equally striking. Among the 15 seats with the highest share of residents with one or both parents born overseas, not a single seat changes hands. The top 15 youngest electorates (aged 18–34) see 6 changes, but only 3 go to One Nation – the other 3 are Greens gains. Among the top 15 renting electorates, 5 change hands but only 2 go to One Nation.
The picture is one of a cultural and generational divide. One Nation’s projected gains are concentrated in older, more Christian, more Australian-born, home-owning communities. The party makes almost no inroads in the multicultural seats of Sydney’s west and Melbourne’s outer suburbs, nor in the young inner-city electorates where the Greens are strongest.
What this means
These projections are a translation of current polling into seat outcomes using the preference model. They assume a uniform national swing modified by each seat’s actual 2025 vote distribution – they do not account for local candidate effects or campaign spending. With One Nation’s vote rising to such heights, there is also a real unknown about whether the party and its candidates could withstand the level of scrutiny that comes with being a genuine contender for government.
The underlying dynamic, however, is clear: the Coalition’s primary vote has roughly halved since 2025, falling from 31.8% to under 19%. That vote has moved overwhelmingly to One Nation, whose support has surged from 6.4% to nearly 30%. Labor’s vote has dropped from 34.6% to 27.4%, but the nature of preferential voting means many of their seats remain defensible in two-candidate contests – particularly in metropolitan areas where One Nation support is softer.
You can explore these numbers yourself using the Track a Poll tracker, or run the election with your own customised swings and preference flows using Model an Election.
