Model how preferences flow in an Australian federal election seat. Enter candidates, their party classification, and primary vote counts — the tool works through each elimination round using observed 2025 AEC preference flow data and produces a predicted two-candidate preferred (2CP) result with a confidence rating. Assumes compulsory preferential voting; does not model exhausted votes.
Step 1
Add each candidate with their name, party classification, and primary vote count. The pre-loaded example shows a typical five-candidate field — clear it to start fresh.
Step 2
Click Simulate preferences. The tool eliminates candidates one by one, distributing votes according to real 2025 AEC preference flow data.
Step 3
Read the round-by-round breakdown. Each round shows which data rule fired, the flow percentages, and the running vote totals. The final panel gives the 2CP prediction and confidence rating.
Enter candidates below and click Simulate preferences to run the count.
| # | Candidate name | Classification | Primary votes |
|---|